I lived in Ohio for a long while. While there I made friends who I will keep for the rest of my life. Some of these friends are Ohio State fans who are unhappy that OSU is not (as of this moment) slated to play in the National Championship Game even though they have the longest winning streak in college football.
Being an inquisitive college football fan, I thought about this stuff. The complexities of the current state of college football ranking is difficult to explain as evidenced by my futile attempts to explain the Coaches Poll, the AP Poll and the BCS formula to my wife. In the end she asked the question that every person not sponsoring a Bowl game or profiting from a Bowl game has asked: why isn't there just a playoff?
Because. That's why. And the "Plus 1" that the BCS will move to next year is kind of like putting a band-aid on an infection and claiming that it's cured. So, regardless of whether or not D1 college football will do what every major sport on the face of the planet has done and have a playoff, the question of ranking bias will exist albeit (with a 16 team playoff) an easier to stomach question of who should be 16 vs. 17 as opposed to who should be 2 vs 3.
So I did what any self respecting inquisitive person would do: I thought about it for a few days and then gave up. The numbers and complexities are too large. When is a win a legitimate win vs. a win against a "lower quality" opponent? What would an algorithm to decide rank look like? Then I found a blog and a partially implemented solution in C# and decided to finish it and fix it.
This method is not without its flaws. I eliminated every team that hadn't played at least 9 games against teams in D1 football. That means that the loss that Florida had against Georgia Southern didn't hurt Florida. The loss to Georgia Southern was not going to be the only loss they had (clearly). That also means that Alabama's win against Georgia State didn't count. I think this is a fair trade-off as it is kind to bad teams and harsh to good teams.
This has room for improvement. I still am counting games against conferences with absolutely terrible average ratings. Here are the average ratings by conference (on a scale of 1-100 with 100 being the best)
1. SEC: 70
2. Pac 12: 67
3. Big 10: 61
4. Big 12: 58
4. ACC: 58
6. AAC: 41
7. Sun Belt: 37
7. Independents: 37
9. Mountain West: 36
10. MAC: 33
11. C-USA: 31
The algorithm is as follows which is effectively how Google stack ranks pages:
1) Every team starts with a rank of 100
2) Iterate over every team.
3) Add the rank of every team they beat together
4) Divide by the number of games they played
5) Go back to step 2 and iterate 25 times
The standings are as follows (and I'm sorry Ohio State, the math and the worthless wins against Illinois (33) and California (23) don't lie):
1. Auburn (100)
2. Missouri (97)
3. Alabama (96)
3. Arizona State (96)
5. Ohio State (95)
6. Florida State (93)
7. Stanford (91)
7. South Carolina (91)
9. Oklahoma State (89)
10. Baylor (88)
11. Oregon (86)
12. Michigan State (85)
13. Clemson (84)
14. UCLA (81)
15. Georgia (80)
16. Oklahoma (79)
17. LSU (78)
17. UCF (78)
19. Duke (77)
20. Northen Illinois (76)
21. Wisconsin (75)
21. USC (75)
21. Texas A&M (75)
21. Miami (FL) (75)
25. Washington (74)
So even if the SEC bias exists, it's correct. Top to bottom they're strong and they beat their non-conference foes more (at least this year). The one really surprising thing to me is the Sun Devils who are tied for 3rd despite their two losses because they have beaten UCLA, Wisconsin, USC, and Washington. This may or may not be a flaw in the system and is a better comparison of conference strength as opposed to bowl records. A bowl game is a non-conference (ideally) game played in January.
OSU fans can take comfort in the fact that if I give them a win next week against MSU, their rank jumps to 98. Either Auburn or Missouri will lose and, surprisingly, the only game that will hurt OSU in this formula is the Stanford v. ASU game but that game will not matter from a BCS standpoint.
I could fix this by tweaking the formula which is the mess the BCS formula is in. There is no system, computer, human, or otherwise that can replace a good old fashioned tournament.
Even my wife agrees.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Sunday, February 3, 2013
My Chili Recipe
It's a work in progress, but this works really well.
Ingredients
Meat
Each one of these is subject to change depending on what my local grocery store has sliced and cheap. Today I made it with beef neck bones instead of oxtail. You can make it with stew beef or whatever.
2.5 lbs meat (lean meats work best, lower grades of rib eye, for instance)
1 lb oxtail (bone in)
1/2 lb bacon (bacon ends work really well, so does fatback)
1 tube chorizo
Beans and veggies
Beans are unnecessary, but can be used if you like beany chili.
2 cans light red kidney beans rinsed and drained
2 cans dark red kidney beans rinsed and drained
1 bell pepper
1 large onion
4 cloves garlic
Tomato stuff
1 can diced tomatoes drained
1 can (8 oz.) tomato sauce
Liquids
2 cans beer
2 T olive oil
Spices
3 T chili powder
6 cubes beef bullion
2 T cumin
2 t paprika
2 t oregano
2 t sugar
1 t cocoa powder (unsweetened)
1/2 t coriander
1 t red pepper flakes
1 t salt
Heat
Change levels according to your own specific needs. You can use as much or as little of these ingredients or add your favorite hot sauces etc. This part changes every time I make it
1/2 t Louisiana hot sauce
1 t cayenne pepper
1 t Cholula
2 T San Luis hot sauce
Final thickening
1 t corn meal
1 t flour
Steps
1) Rough cut the bacon (fatback/whatever) and brown in a pot (this pot is the one you'll use for everything) on low heat.
2) Once the bacon is browned, add the oxtail and sear on all sides.
3) Add the 2 cans of beer to the pot with the bacon and oxtail, cover and reduce heat to low
4) Chop the bell pepper, onion, and meat into bite sized chunks. Mince the garlic. Mix these 4 ingredients together and place in the fridge
5) Brown the chorizo in a pan and drain the grease. Set the chorizo aside
6) After about 30 minutes of cooking (I normally just do steps 4 and 5 and once they're done, it's time to keep going) pour everything from the pot into a bowl and set aside to cool
7) Add the olive oil to the pot and then the meat mixture from the fridge. Pour the salt on the mixture. Keep the heat at low and the cover on, stirring occasionally, until all the meat is browned on all sides and the onions are translucent.
8) While that's browning, mix the spices together in a bowl. Crumble the beef bullion with your hand
9) Once the meat is brown and the onions are translucent, add the tomato stuff, the spices, the heat, and the chorizo. Stir to mix. Cover and leave heat on low.
10) Take the oxtails out of the bowl it's in and put it in the pot with your chili base
11) Using a tablespoon, spoon off as much of the bacon fat from the remaining liquid and pour the liquid and pork parts (non-skin) into the chili mixture. Increase heat to medium and bring back to a boil.
12) Cover the pot, reduce heat to low, and cook for 1.5 hours
13) Add the beans and cook for .5 hour
14) If you want the chili thicker, mix the final thickening ingredients together in a bowl with some of the chili liquid until you have a paste and stir into the chili. You can do this as many times as you want, just make sure you give at least 30 minutes between applications.
15) Put into a slow cooker on low for 2 hours. You don't have to do this, I just like to do this to ensure the meat falls off the bone.
16) If you didn't spoon off the bacon fat in step 11, you will have chili with a dark covering. You may end up with this even if you did depending on the fat content of your meat. This is fat. You can either stir it into your chili and serve or spoon it off.
17) Pull the meat off the oxtails and remove the bones from the chili.
18) Stir to mix and serve.
Ingredients
Meat
Each one of these is subject to change depending on what my local grocery store has sliced and cheap. Today I made it with beef neck bones instead of oxtail. You can make it with stew beef or whatever.
2.5 lbs meat (lean meats work best, lower grades of rib eye, for instance)
1 lb oxtail (bone in)
1/2 lb bacon (bacon ends work really well, so does fatback)
1 tube chorizo
Beans and veggies
Beans are unnecessary, but can be used if you like beany chili.
2 cans light red kidney beans rinsed and drained
2 cans dark red kidney beans rinsed and drained
1 bell pepper
1 large onion
4 cloves garlic
Tomato stuff
1 can diced tomatoes drained
1 can (8 oz.) tomato sauce
Liquids
2 cans beer
2 T olive oil
Spices
3 T chili powder
6 cubes beef bullion
2 T cumin
2 t paprika
2 t oregano
2 t sugar
1 t cocoa powder (unsweetened)
1/2 t coriander
1 t red pepper flakes
1 t salt
Heat
Change levels according to your own specific needs. You can use as much or as little of these ingredients or add your favorite hot sauces etc. This part changes every time I make it
1/2 t Louisiana hot sauce
1 t cayenne pepper
1 t Cholula
2 T San Luis hot sauce
Final thickening
1 t corn meal
1 t flour
Steps
1) Rough cut the bacon (fatback/whatever) and brown in a pot (this pot is the one you'll use for everything) on low heat.
2) Once the bacon is browned, add the oxtail and sear on all sides.
3) Add the 2 cans of beer to the pot with the bacon and oxtail, cover and reduce heat to low
4) Chop the bell pepper, onion, and meat into bite sized chunks. Mince the garlic. Mix these 4 ingredients together and place in the fridge
5) Brown the chorizo in a pan and drain the grease. Set the chorizo aside
6) After about 30 minutes of cooking (I normally just do steps 4 and 5 and once they're done, it's time to keep going) pour everything from the pot into a bowl and set aside to cool
7) Add the olive oil to the pot and then the meat mixture from the fridge. Pour the salt on the mixture. Keep the heat at low and the cover on, stirring occasionally, until all the meat is browned on all sides and the onions are translucent.
8) While that's browning, mix the spices together in a bowl. Crumble the beef bullion with your hand
9) Once the meat is brown and the onions are translucent, add the tomato stuff, the spices, the heat, and the chorizo. Stir to mix. Cover and leave heat on low.
10) Take the oxtails out of the bowl it's in and put it in the pot with your chili base
11) Using a tablespoon, spoon off as much of the bacon fat from the remaining liquid and pour the liquid and pork parts (non-skin) into the chili mixture. Increase heat to medium and bring back to a boil.
12) Cover the pot, reduce heat to low, and cook for 1.5 hours
13) Add the beans and cook for .5 hour
14) If you want the chili thicker, mix the final thickening ingredients together in a bowl with some of the chili liquid until you have a paste and stir into the chili. You can do this as many times as you want, just make sure you give at least 30 minutes between applications.
15) Put into a slow cooker on low for 2 hours. You don't have to do this, I just like to do this to ensure the meat falls off the bone.
16) If you didn't spoon off the bacon fat in step 11, you will have chili with a dark covering. You may end up with this even if you did depending on the fat content of your meat. This is fat. You can either stir it into your chili and serve or spoon it off.
17) Pull the meat off the oxtails and remove the bones from the chili.
18) Stir to mix and serve.
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